The Tokyo Yushun will decide the leading colt from a crop of 7,944 foals born in 2023, and this year’s renewal arrives with a field carrying unusual depth. Eleven of the 18 runners have already won at JRA Graded level, while dual G1 winner Lovcen attempts to take the second leg of the Japanese Triple Crown after his dominant Satsuki Sho victory.

Lovcen will attempt to become the first horse since Contrail in 2020 to complete the opening two legs of the Triple Crown. Yet recent history around the Satsuki Sho has been less straightforward than expected. Although every Satsuki Sho winner over the past decade has contested the Derby, only one has gone on to win at Tokyo, with four finishing second and one third.

There is further intrigue in the raw time Lovcen produced at Nakayama. His 1:56.5 in the Satsuki Sho was the fastest winning time in the race’s history, but the record of exceptionally fast Satsuki Sho winners in the Derby has been mixed. Museum Mile, who clocked 1:57.0 last year, could only finish sixth in the Derby, while Justin Milano was runner-up after running 1:57.1 in 2024. Duramente remains the only horse among the 10 fastest Satsuki Sho winners to capture the Derby.

Lovcen also represents a potentially significant milestone for first-season sire World Premier. Only 25 of his progeny are registered with the JRA, yet he already has a Derby favorite carrying his banner. First-crop sires Contrail and Poetic Flare are also represented, while Congestus, Going to Sky, Realize Sirius and Lovcen all seek to become the first Derby winner from a first crop since Tastiera, a son of Satono Crown, succeeded in 2023.

Tezuka Chasing Rare Classic Sweep

Trainer Takahisa Tezuka arrives with two major contenders and an opportunity to join an exclusive group in Japanese racing history. A Derby victory would make him only the fifth trainer to win all five JRA Classic races.

Tezuka has come close in recent seasons, saddling Masquerade Ball and Sol Oriens to second-place finishes in the Derby. This year, his hopes rest with Satsuki Sho runner-up Realize Sirius and Spring Stakes winner Audacia.

Realize Sirius brings a notable profile into the race, having won all three of his starts going left-handed. Audacia, meanwhile, gains the services of Derby-winning jockey Damian Lane, whose presence adds further strength to the stable’s challenge.

Congestus Attempts To Defy Derby Prep Trends

Congestus enters unbeaten after his surprise success in the Kyoto Shimbun Hai and now attempts to become the 12th undefeated Derby winner.

History, however, presents a difficult obstacle. The Kyoto Shimbun Hai, staged just three weeks before the Derby, has produced only two Derby winners since 2000 — Kizuna in 2013 and Agnes Flight in 2000. Shohei’s third-place finish last year remains the only other placing from the race in that period.

Uehara Expands Derby Presence

Fourth-year trainer Yuki Uehara will saddle four runners across the Satsuki Sho and Derby sequence, becoming only the second trainer to send four horses into a Derby lineup. The only previous trainer to achieve the feat was Kazuo Fujisawa in 2002, when Symboli Kris S and Machikane Akatsuki finished second and third respectively.

One of Uehara’s runners, Going to Sky, secured his Derby berth with victory in the Aoba Sho and will now partner veteran jockey Yutaka Take. That pairing immediately draws attention given Take’s extraordinary Derby record of six wins from 36 rides, both standing as race records.

The Aoba Sho remains one of the more scrutinized Derby trials in Japan because it has yet to produce a Derby winner despite repeatedly generating placed runners. Fenomeno, Win Variation, Zenno Rob Roy and Symboli Kris S all finished runner-up in the Derby after contesting the race.

Justin Vista Returns As Foreign Riders Add International Element

Justin Vista returns from a five-month absence after suffering a fracture and reunites with Ryusei Sakai, who turns 29 on Derby Day. Sakai’s Derby record has been remarkably consistent whenever he has completed the course. Excluding Dura Erede unseating him at the start in 2023, Sakai has finished fourth aboard Satono Impresa, third with Shin Emperor and second on Masquerade Ball.

An international flavor will also be present through three short-term licensed riders. Damian Lane partners Audacia, Michael Dee rides Meisho Hachiko and Francisco Goncalves takes the mount on M’s Begin.

M’s Begin already carries significant attention after being purchased for 590 million yen at the 2024 Select Sale Yearling session. A Derby victory would see him become the highest-priced purchase ever to win a JRA G1 race.

For all the historical trends, statistical warnings and pedigree angles surrounding this year’s Derby, the central question remains unchanged. Lovcen arrives at Tokyo with the fastest Satsuki Sho ever run and a Triple Crown campaign still intact, but the Derby has consistently shown that raw brilliance over 2000 meters does not always guarantee success over Tokyo’s demanding 2400 meters.