They say pace makes the race. And for the most part, that’s true. Even the best horses can fall victim to a poorly run race—once. But twice in a row? That’s harder to overlook. Royal Victory, a dual Grade 1 winner, including a weight-for-age triumph, has now been beaten twice as a short-priced favorite, leaving punters scratching their heads.

The first time, there were explanations. His connections pointed to a small layoff and the fact that he was using the run as a stepping stone to bigger targets. He also drifted in the betting, signaling some uncertainty. Fair enough. But this time? No excuses. The former Grade 1 Summer Cup and Premier’s Champions Challenge winner was well and truly beaten again at 5/10, managing only fourth at Scottsville in a race where he was weighted to win comfortably.

The R200,000 umTHOMBOTHI Stakes belonged to Selukwe, who was given a perfectly judged ride by Serino Moodley. The gelding received a six-point ratings hike for his effort, and rightly so (97 to 103). He controlled the pace and turned the screws in the straight, leaving Royal Victory unable to respond. Simply put, Royal Victory was flat when it mattered, while Selukwe had the best final 400m sectional, quickening off a slow pace to seal the win. The Champ was beaten 5.75l. His post race rating as revised to a 124 from a 125.

So, was it just another case of tempo, or is Royal Victory not quite the horse he once seemed? The jury is still out.